Watchlist Criteria

In rebuilding our watchlist, I want to clarify the criteria I think we should stick to for a good and all-purpose watchlist. The aim should be to have a list of highly rated and leading stocks from a broad range of industry groups.

Most basic criteria for consideration to be on our list:

• F/E score of 3.25.
• Price Pattern score of 2.5
• Average daily volume = 1 Million or more

These scores for F/E and Price Pattern are far from a crystal ball. Indeed there will be plenty of high scoring stocks that don't perform well. But at the very least, this is a simple way to begin the process of narrowing our sights from the vast sea of stocks that one could watch. With so many stocks out there, why look at any other than the ones with the strongest fundamentals?

The volume requirement brings a few benefits. It is true that a stock trading a minimum of 100 to 250 thousand shares a day is probably liquid enough to safely trade and invest in. But when a stock is traded as heavy as 1 million shares a day, we know that a few players will not be able to push this stock around and we can trust more of a "fair" market in the stock and its price. The more people there are haggling for something, the more likely it is to sell for the most appropriate price given all factors at any given time. In turn, it seems to me that a more heavily traded stock should have a chart that is more likely to provide us with more reliable material for technical analysis of the chart. Think about it like watching a bunch of people finding their way through a maze. If you watched 20 people trying to find their way, you'd probably have a harder time predicting their next move than if you saw 2000 people moving together. Does that make sense or is that just an image that works for me only? I suppose the simple message is that it is easier to observe and predict the behavior of a big mass of people than a small few.

But perhaps the most important reason for requiring that higher degree of liquidity is that the heavily traded stock is much more likely to also have heavy trading in its options chain. (I know that some people may not be trading options, but for those that are we should keep this list appropriate for all purposes.) The more people trading the options, the more open interest there will be on each option contract throughout the chain of months and strike prices, and the tighter the bid/ask spreads will be. We want to be very careful with options that have wide spreads. Basically, the wider the spread, the bigger the instant loss you have to make up. If an options has a bid of 3.50 and an ask of 3.90, you buy at the ask and instantly show a .40 loss if you wanted to sell it quickly. If this kind of situation would be the norm in your options trading, you would have to have a higher ratio of success to compensate for the toll the wide spreads would take on your profits.

For an extreme example, look at the options chain for the QQQQ. The ETF is trading somewhere around 130 million shares a day and the options chain has amazing levels of open interest. As a result, the bid/ask spreads in the options chain are .05 or even less with the new penny price increments.
(click image to see it bigger)

In contrast, look at a stock like VPRT. I have watched and really liked this stock for quite some time. It has an F/E score of 3.75 and trades an average 400,000 shares daily. While that is enough volume to comfortably trade the stock, the options chain is a bit dicey. There are contracts here with high levels of open interest, but there are also some that are lacking. As a result we see a nice bid/ask spread on the contracts with high open interest and a less favorable spread on those with lower open interest. Look at the front month(April) 35 and 40 calls. .20 spread on one, .40 spread on the other. .40 is more than I want to pay. We won't find much better than .20 on options spreads for stock, but if we stick to stocks that have heavy volume, there is a greater likelihood of high open interest throughout the options chain and therefore attractive spreads. Also, there will likely be a greater choice for months and strike prices available. (Keep in mind that these snapshots were taken over the weekend when the market is not open, so the pricing is probably a bit off of where it is during open hours. But the basic principle still holds.)


Back to the list! Even with these basic requirements, we'll still have plenty of stocks to choose from. Now it's up to our discretion. Here are some factors I think should be used to consider the strongest of the strong and narrow down the potential candidates.

• Because it represents the forwarding looking expectations for the company, we would prefer that the Estimates score is stronger than the Financials score.
• Sales and earnings growth are perhaps the most influential factor in a stock's performance. Annual sales and earnings growth of 25% or better for the trailing year is important. Ideally, the earnings growth will be higher than the sales growth as a sign of efficiency. Estimated 20% annual growth or better for the next 5 years is important.
  
• A PEG of 2 or higher is a sign of a potentially overvalued stock. You can find this piece of information on the "Valuation Analysis" page found in the left hand column of your Investools "Corporate Snapshot" page.
  
• A strong stock should be a group leader both fundamentally and technically. For a technical comparison, click on the "Industry Comparison" link also in the left hand column near the bottom on the Corporate Snapshot page.

I don't think we should worry so much about ranking on the big chart as this is meant to be a longer term list to watch and not one to change every 3 weeks as groups heat up and cool down. Of course, you can do that at home with your own list, but for the sake of simplicity for the group, let's keep it about the individual stocks and not the hot groups. The bonus is that if one of our hot stocks in a cold group begins to climb on the big chart, we'll be there to ride it on up with the rest of the group as it should be a leader.

Well, I think that covers my basic thinking behind the watchlist. Please chime in with any questions or comments.

You missed it! Market Posture!

Or maybe you didn't and were there. In any case, we had a great meeting tonight! Lots of nitty gritty and educational discussion. Good crowd of regulars and contributing newcomers too. Thanks to all for your presence and participation. Special thanks to Margie for a great presentation on her 20/40 moving average crossover system. Indeed, it seems that keeping it simple is really smart, STUPID! (K.I.S.S. The bold printed STUPID is really directed at myself) :-)

As always, we started off with a (not so) quick jaunt through the market posture exercise to establish a relatively objective stance on the market. It seems to me like I should get through that process faster, but particularly at a time when the direction of the market is very much in question, we must never underestimate the importance of trading in the same direction as the rest of the market players.

In the intermediate time frame, the SPX is showing a lower high, but not yet a lower low. Therefore we have a Neutral/Bearish posture for that most important judgement. The short term, in contrast, shows higher highs and higher lows for a bullish trend. (see grid below for time frame definitions)
If the 1410 level doesn't hold as support, I don't see much stopping it from going quickly to 1380 in the near term. And if it makes it to 1380.....not good. That's the last holdout before an official lower low on the intermediate term picture. Or maybe it's fantastic for put buyers and short sellers, depending on how you look at it.
(Click on images to see them grow. It works the same way our accounts should when we click on the buy and sell buttons.)


I have added to the regular grid another 0ne to define the short, intermediate and long term trends based on higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. With that, we can try to be as objective as possible. But our focus as active investors/traders is on the intermediate time frame. I have also taken Lauren's suggestion to keep a running record of what our posture was each time we do it, but I don't have anything saved from before last meeting.

Because the other two indicators, the Volatility index and the Investools Market Forecaster, were also judged bearish, we assumed an overall posture of bearish. But keep in mind that the Index itself is always the primary consideration. We look to the other two factors to confirm and support what we're seeing in the price action on the Index.

We judged the VIX bearish because it bounced off of the 12.50 area, the prior ceiling for the VIX and seemingly the new floor. The VIX may be range-bound now between 12.50 and the 20 area. But whether range bound or going higher, it is currently headed upward in that range and with more room to go to potential resistance than distance back down to new support at the 12.50 area. Because this is a contrary indicator, as this goes up, we call it bearish.


On the Market Forecaster, the green intermediate line has turned downward and put in a lower high. When it crosses the 50 line, that will give more weight to the bearish case. The much longer term market sentiment line in gold is also headed downward with plenty of room to go. Again, though the shorter term lines are low and show potential for a bounce, the emphasis is on the intermediate term which is now in sync with the longer term indicator. Notice also that the market rallied back up above the 50 MA, but quickly fell back below it.



In other news, we've slashed a lot of stocks from our list. The reasons why certain stocks were cut were: F/E score below 3.25, Estimates score markedly lower than the Financials score, trading volume too low, very poor performance relative to the industry group, overvaluation, sales and earnings growth and growth estimates lower than we'd like. We want trailing sales growth and earning growth of 25% or better and an estimated earnings growth for the coming 5 years to be 20% or better.

Here is what we have left on the list for the time being. Judging from the fundamentals alone, these are some beautiful looking stocks.



In the coming weeks, I'll put up some ideas to add to these and we'll settle upon a new list to watch for when the market does regain a bullish posture. Until then, be careful out there and consider looking for some bearish ideas to balance out whatever bullish positions you may be in still. Now is a time for stop orders to be in place.

Brief? Brilliant? Ascending Triangles

Last night I did a quick glance through the Market Posture page of the toolbox to determine relative strength simply by the most recent slope of each index's 30 MA. I liked Semiconductors(SOX), Oil(OIX), Insurance( IUX), Retail(RLX), and Gold(GOX). Hi tech and Internet also seem relatively strong, but they are less focused when you look at their components, particularly Internet, so I try to ignore that one.
From the oil patch, here's a beautiful pattern.
ARD - Very nice fundamentals. Major growth. I must be missing something, but with a trailing twelve months P/E of 33.46 and estimated average annual growth of 54%, that gives the stock a PEG of .62. VERY low, translated as cheap. It broke through resistance today, but the upper shadow of today's candle leaves me skeptical. Nevertheless, this is an example of what an ascending triangle is supposed to look like. The bulls buy it up until a point of resistance is established. The bears sell it downward but they have less success with each swing before the bulls take over again. If momentum continues as it should, the resistance line should be obliterated with volume for a move into new territory with clear blue sky overhead. Whether you take it now or wait for a test of new support, the line in the sand is at 47.50.
I measure the triangle as 10 points high, giving a target of 57.50 in about 2-3 months.
Be careful for earnings on March 26.



Here's a retail play with good fundamentals.

GES. Nice ascending triangle about 5-6 pts. high for a target of 48 or so. Interesting to note the gap from good earnings and how the stock gapped down to open at the bottom of that gap on the 27th when the whole market gapped down. But it did rally back that day for only a small loss, which I would say is a good sign of relative strength.


I'm no pro on sector rotation, but I think this just might be one of those "flight to safety" kind of stocks.
UNH - This one isn't quite as clean as the others, but it's worth considering. I'd look for a target of 59 or so.


The longer term picture on UNH is important to consider. It does seem to be making a comeback, but there is certainly potential resistance along the way.



Okay, so it wasn't THAT brief. But a step in the right direction.

Fed day: Bullish?

Fed funds rate left unchanged at 5 1/4. Just in case you don't know where to find the actual FOMC statement, you can read it for yourself here. Scroll down lower on the page to the link for this month's statement. It's interesting to see the subtle changes in language between this statement and the last one. It does seem that they are opening the door for potential rate cuts on the horizon.

The markets have bounced in a big way. Most of the major indexes are showing double bottom structures that arguably confirmed yesterday, or definitely today. Here's the SPX. This action tells us we have to ease off on the bearish posture and entertain at least a neutral if not slightly bullish posture for the short term. However, I'm inclined to think it won't be easy to clear potential resistance at the 1450/1460 area.
Just remember to consider your basic approach to trading/investing. With the assumption that most of us are "trend" traders, in periods of indecision like now, we can reduce our exposure to either direction and/or focus on much shorter time period trades, preferrably with attainable targets.

The total volume on the NYSE shows an "accumulation day" with gains on more shares traded today than yesterday. But the volume for today and the previous two days is still low compared to the activity since the big drop on Feb. 27, so I'm not going to get too worked up about the bull case just yet.

The VIX reached an intraday low beneath where it started on Feb 27. Somehow, with the craziness of the last three weeks, I don't see the VIX settling back into a nice comfy trading range below 12.50 again. If not, we should expect some continued choppiness.


AAPL looks like it is back in play as it has crept its way back above resistance. But I'd prefer to wait for a bounce of some sort. It is too extended from any support for my taste.


CTSH has three green arrows with a fresh one on the MA. It also has moved out of a symmetrical triangle formation with lower highs and higher lows acting like a winding coil. It lacks the volume needed to give it conviction on the breakout, but it at least gives us a target. That would be the nice round number of $100 based on the height of the open side of the triangle added onto the level at which the stock broke above it.
With a stop below today's low, around 90, that's better than a one/two risk/reward ratio.

VSEA and its buyers laughed off my resistance line and bought heavily today sending the stock up almost 8%. It's a bit far for my blood to jump in now. This is one heck of a volatile stock. The front month Implied Volatility is 40% compared to 12% for the SPX, 18% for the QQQQ and 22% for the SMH. One lesson to learn from this one is to pay close attention to stocks that are holding up well while the market is dealing with selling and volatility.



Finally, to give Starbux a bit of attention since it's been discussed actively on the list, here is a long term, weekly view.


Looking closer at the daily chart, it's amazing how similar this double bottom reversal pattern is to the last time the stock made it down to this support area. When the second bottom was formed with a Morning Doji Star (but not exactly - no gap down to the Doji), you can see how the volume came in strong the next day. I've circled the formation with the smaller circle inside the bigger double bottom pattern.
In any case, as Jim and Basant discussed in their exchange, it does seem like a wait for a bounce off of new support around 31 would be prudent. There is potential resistance overhead in the 33 area and the stock has moved dramatically in the last week alone. Regardless, today was a very bullish candle with volume increasing each of the last two days.



(Not to self: Be Brief or be brilliant.) ;-b

[Update: Just as I finished this post, I read another blog with recent mentions of SBUX. LOL! It's wonderful to see that there are always people seeing just the opposite things in the market.
Here's a guy with what seems like a pretty respectable blog for worthwhile reading. The 2nd and 3rd most recent posts are on SBUX and his case for a long term double top. Could be.]

Matt

Updating/weeding out the list

Today the market had very respectable and possibly encouraging gains. But judging from the volume on the major index ETFs, trading was not heavy enough to look at the day's action as a convincing change of sentiment in the market. This images shows a daily chart of the three majors since November with a 30 day Moving average. All of them have areas of likely resistance to overcome before any serious bullish posture could be entertained again. In addition to resistance levels from price action, the descending 30 MAs might just might provide another influential nudge to the down side.
It should be noted that they all are in a double bottom reversal pattern, but there are a few things to consider. 1) The pattern is meaningless until the resistance from the high between the two bottoms is broken. 2) A bullish reversal should come at the bottom of a bearish trend. The recent bearishness is really just the first breakdown of a very bullish trend and not yet a trend with lower highs and lower lows(I'm looking at SPY on a daily closing basis). So, looking for an upward "reversal" seems a bit premature.
(Click for a larger view.)


While the market is sorting itself out, this is an ideal time to rebalance our lists. Everyone should be working on a bearish watchlist. Despite the current state of things, I think we should always focus on the primary watchlist for the group as a bullish watchlist. After all, that direction is the ultra long term bias and nature of the market. Besides, many people may not be interested in or comfortable with shorting the market or trading bearish. When the market does resume its strength, we want to be ready with a list of well chosen stocks that are likely to be among the first and strong participants of a new rally. But first we've got to get rid of the current stocks that are less attractive at this point.
I mentioned a few thoughts about trimming down our list a few posts ago. Here's a complete run down on what I think should go and what should stay.
First: here's a look at the list and how it scores in the Investools Phase 1 and Phase 2 analyzer.


The simplest way to start is by getting rid of KBH, UNT and ZMH because they have a combined F/E score of less than 3.25. I'm a bit sad to see ZMH go, particularly as it continues to work on a new 52 week high. But the growth estimates is less than our ideal 20% and it is estimated to grow at a pace slower than its group this year and also in the next 5 years.

Also, because the Estimates score is forward looking, we'd prefer for that score to be the stronger of the two, if possible. For that reason, I'd also like to see CRDN, WCC, and BHI leave our list.
CRDN - Growth estimates are a low 7.5%. Also estimated to under perform its group this year and next. Set an alert on this one for when it breaks 62.50 and forget it.
WCC - Growth estimate is less than 20% and it is estimated to under perform its group this year and next. It's been in a range between 55 and 70 for about 9 months. Set an alert to notify you if it goes above 70 and forget it.
BHI - It is actually very attractive from a valuation standpoint. PEG is .45 with a P/E well under its group. But the most recent earnings miss and the current and next year's estimates for earnings growth well below the group look like red flags. The chart is a mess with the gap down on the recent earnings announcement. It has also not participated in the latest rally attempt in the Oil Services.

The others:
ICE - Has had an incredible run and the trend has broken. PEG of 2.19 looks a bit overpriced. I'll be looking for potential bearish entries on this on a bounce down from 135 or a break of 125.

NTAP - It had a strong reaction to the recent earnings announcement in February but couldn't follow through and with the market selloff on the 27th, it gave back all the gains from the earnings jump. 36 remains important support, recently confirmed by a nice hammer formation. But once that breaks, things don't look good. Again, this has a high PEG of 2.24. Institutions own 87% of the shares outstanding on this stock. Once they start selling, look out below.


HWAY - This stock has just been boring! The fundamentals are still quite good, but I'd like to get rid of it if or no other reason than that it trades well below an average 1 million shares a day. As a result, there's not a lot of open interest throughout the options chain.

VSEA still looks to be a reasonable valuation with strong fundamentals. So I don't see great fundamental reasons to take it off the list. But I'm nervous about the chart. It has seen great gains in the last 8 months. More impressive is the strength of its chart compared to the SOX index in the last 4 months and it is now working breaking recent resistance to an all time high. But the chart looks like it could be ready to roll over. It broke a long term trendline in January and rallied back up to find resistance on the underside of that line. It now looks to be in an ascending wedge, which tends to resolve to the down side. With a big bearish engulfing candle strengthening resistance at 50, a reversal could be at play here.


CWTR - Though the fundamental scores are still pretty good and the valuation is actually quite attractive, I think this industry comparison chart says it all. GONG!

RIMM is pretty expensive, but it has held up impressively in the recent market selling. We should wait to see what happens at the earnings announcement on April 4. Or maybe we should not include stocks over $100. Thoughts?

In Summary, here is my recommendation for the list:
KBH Cut
UNT Cut
ZMH Cut
CRDN Cut
WCC Cut
BHI Cut
ICE Cut
NTAP Cut
HWAY Cut
CWTR Cut

Keepers(for now)
VSEA Give it the benefit of the doubt until it breaks down
RIMM Hold 'til earnings, at least
COH This actually has 3 green arrows right now
AAPL Apple rolls out a bright iFuture
CTSH Just ranked 15th in the Businessweek 50 best performing companies. Setting up for a new batch of green arrows.

So how does that strike you? Please let me know if this assessment of things is agreeable or if you see certain stocks differently than I and would like to take different action. Once we agree on the stocks to get rid of, we can begin to find replacements. We still have over a week until our next meeting, but perhaps we can get some ideas flowing between now and then. If you respond with ideas, I'll try to respond and include charts. If you want to mock up a chart with what you're seeing, I'd be happy to post that too on that blog.

CME bearish, whicher way you slice it

Financials have been a major part of the volatility and selling in the market recently. Banks have plunged so far, so fast they seem way to hot to handle.


Broker/Dealers have a been halted at the 200 MA. But with a series of lower highs and lower lows now in place, It seems that the 200 MA will continue to be pressured and eventually broken, perhaps soon.



The group has steadily shifted down into the red on the big chart.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been leading the charge for this group over the past 4 years. With an F/E of 3.50, an amazing 550% growth from IPO to peak in the last 4 years, CME is a mighty stock with fundamentals that back it up. And with all that momentum, a $500 price level and average daily trading volume of around 1 Million, this is a serious trader's stock. Almost like an index, there is plenty of volatility and potential daily moves here with which money can be made.

Though Chicago Mercantile Exchange is in the process of a buying Chicago Board of Trade, our friend ICE, the Intercontinental Exchange has just put in an unsolicited bid for CBOT. CME sold off hard on the news perhaps because it might prompt a bidding war. Or is this just a catalyst for a stock that has had a huge run and needs to take a breather and pull back a bit?

Though the fundamentals are very strong, we can see that they missed meeting the earnings estimates in Q4 2006. Also, the PEG is 2. The consensus seems to be that 2 should be the ceiling for a stock with a bullish outlook. A stock whose P/E is two times its estimated annual growth can be seen as overvalued. CME is now right on that cusp of overvalued.


Whatever the catalyst, the chart is telling a story. Depending on how you look at it, it tells lots of stories. I'll look from a few different angles. But most of them point toward the same general conclusion. Down is more likely than up.
The stock broke the trending support line of 4 years and almost perfectly kissed the underside of it and bounced down hard last week.
(Click image for a bigger look.)

A closer look at the weekly shows a support level just above 500. Below that waits a channel whose next support looks to be about 430.

Looking at the daily chart, we can see how the earnings miss was received in late February. Not good. As a result of that catalyst, the long term trendline was broken and tested from the underside forming a potential head and shoulders pattern with a neckline right around 510. I'll call the height of the pattern, from neckline to head, 90 points. So if the 510 neckline area broke it would forecast a target of 430. It's kind of scary to make predictions of moves that big. But it puts it into perspective when you consider that from the high of around 590, a correction to 430 is just a bit less than 30%. On a monster growth story stock, I would think that would be very normal, particularly as the broader market is in a correction effort.

Maybe you're more comfortable with Moving averages than chart patterns. The 200 MA at just above 500 could be a good trigger. Also, just trading below that nice round number, 500, might be a psychological factor in a change of tone here.

Here's a look with the Investools study set. Three red arrows with the stock having just bounced down off the now descending 30 MA. Perhaps the next bounce down could be the entry from this perspective with a stop just above the MA.


Whichever way you look at it, application of proper position sizing with a stop order just beyond resistance will most likely make for a very good risk/reward scenario. I'll be watching this one and will try to revisit it with some trade ideas if it triggers a clean entry.

Market Posture and a few ideas

Greetings! Sorry for the long period of inactivity on the blog. I've been very sidetracked with my career pursuits. I'm thinking that may be more of a norm in the coming months, but I'll try to keep this alive if I can.

It was great to be back at the meeting tonight and see a great group of core regulars there. Good energy!

Though it may be obvious to most, I'll post our reading of the market posture having gone through the Market Posture grid.



The SPX itself gave quite an intra-day scare but didn't close with a lower low just yet, so there is not yet an official down trend begun. The rally in yesterday's action was pretty impressive, still that's just the action durin one day. The past two weeks have been decidedly bearish and abrupt. That this should just smooth over and resume a nice steady uptrend seems unlikely. In any case, we're cautiously bearish because we don't have the lower low yet.
(Click the image for a large view.)



Ray made the good point that just because the VIX is high doesn't mean the market will go down further, nor is it necessarily "time to buy." Unless it continues to go higher, than we should read it as neutral and wait for a turn back down as a bullish indicator. If it continues higher, that will be with further bearish action in the market. But the real value in this indicator is when it turns from being low or high.
At this point, we have a higher low, but not yet a higher high after the break above the 12.50 area. I think Ray's probably right that the VIX will form a new range roughly where it has been in the last two weeks. That doesn't really give us much to work with other than the knowledge that the market is now a bit more volatile than before. So it might be fair to read this indicator as neutral to bearish.


We talked a bit about the group list but didn't get to really dig into it. I want to get rid of a majority of the list. In fact, many of them might be good bear watch-list candidates now.

KBH, UNT, and ZMH need to go if for no other reason because they don't have an F/E score of 3.25 or higher. And have you seen the chart on KBH? OUCH!
With a move up to and bounce down from resistance at 37.50, that might be a nice entry for a bearish play. I'd look for a shorter term quick profit, though, because this stock has been beaten up for a long time. I think it is severely undervalued at this point. PEG of .67. And look at its P/E compared to its group. But the chart is what it is until it isn't anymore. It had an intermediate uptrend going, but that was obliterated a few days ago on the break of 47.50.


CRDN should probably go because it's 5 year growth estimate is only 7.5%. Remember that we're looking for a minimum of 20%.

ICE is quite overvalued with a very high P/E and PEG. It looks like its great run is over and if it breaks support around 127, there looks to be nice room for profits in bearish plays even with multiple stops for support along the way.



NTAP is also perhaps overvalued with a high PEG above 2. Looks pretty toppy as well with what looks like a relatively orderly turning over. A break below support at 36 would negate the hammer candle yesterday and be a nice entry for a ride down to 33, 31 or 29(two former areas of recent horizontal support and one diagonal support line from the low in 2004.)


More thoughts on what should get booted from the list soon.

For the long side just in case the market does look strong from here. NTRI is a potentially nice entry here with a higher low after being beat down by silly analysts changing with the wind. On strong earnings the recent gap up and low volume pullback seems as if people are ready to start buying this stock again. Fundamentals are very strong and the valuation is quite low. Look at the P/E compared to its group. PEG is .77. Very low, which is good. If you don't know what PEG is, do a search on Investopedia for the short and quick answer. But here's a more in depth presentation PEG from thestreet.com that is pretty good. Notice the date on the article and Cramer's mention of how undervalued MA was given its PEG. And look what happened to the stock shortly thereafter: It was up 160% at its high last month!

It's been a wide ranging year for NTRI, but more or less sideways. We're now at the bottom of that range with a symmetrical triangle that seems likely to break to the top side given the volume on the recent earnings announcement and gap up. An entry on a break above the resistance line or 47.50 seems pretty reasonable with a target of 60 or so. It's a touchy call with the state of this market right now, but with a conservative position size the potential reward may just justify the risk.


That's all for now.

Feel free to chime in in the comments section here.